000
WTPZ41 KNHC 151435
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013
 
A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER AROUND THE TIME OF THE LAST ADVISORY.  DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 30-35 KT AND SUPPORT MAINTAINING PRISCILLA
AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM.  DEEP-LAYER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS
DECREASING TO BELOW 10 KT...BUT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
PRISCILLA CONTINUES TO INGEST MORE STABLE AIR TO ITS NORTHWEST.
SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE FOR ABOUT 24
HOURS...PRISCILLA SHOULD EITHER MAINTAIN MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THAT TIME.  INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD THEN CAUSE PRISCILLA
TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
 
PRISCILLA APPEARS TO BE TURNING AND NOW HAS AN ESTIMATED INITIAL
MOTION OF 330/6 KT.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO.  THE
UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCE AND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 17.4N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 17.9N 117.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 18.6N 118.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 19.2N 119.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 19.7N 120.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1200Z 19.6N 122.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG