000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150836
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
AND SEPARATED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  THE LATEST DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT...WHICH
COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN
PLAGUING PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TODAY BUT AT THE SAME
TIME THE CYCLONE WILL BE INGESTING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO ITS
NORTHWEST.  THESE UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE
PRISCILLA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AND PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  IF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
DOES NOT RETURN LATER TODAY...THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A REMNANT
LOW MUCH SOONER. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/7 KT.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT PRISCILLA WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE OVER MEXICO BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE 
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AND THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH SOME DECREASE IS FORWARD
SPEED SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK IS
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DUE TO A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 17.1N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 17.7N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 18.5N 118.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 19.3N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 19.8N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0600Z 20.0N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN