000
WTPZ41 KNHC 021435
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013
800 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013
 
KIKO HAS ONLY BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 0700 UTC
AND SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION IS STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER AND
IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. AS A RESULT...KIKO IS BEING MAINTAINED AS
A 30-KT DEPRESSION...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH AN AVERAGE OF ALL
AVAILABLE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF THE CYCLONE
HAVE NOW DECOUPLED...SO KIKO SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND BECOME
A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. DISSIPATION OF THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED
BY 48 HOURS...BUT IT COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN THAT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 325/02 KT. AS INDICATED IN
PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...KIKO HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY. THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BASICALLY MEANDER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA
WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 22.9N 116.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 23.2N 116.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  03/1200Z 23.5N 116.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/0000Z 23.7N 116.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART