000
WTPZ41 KNHC 020235
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KIKO IS FADING...AND DVORAK DATA
T-NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN FAST.  OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY RULE...THE
ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS SET...PERHAPS GENEROUSLY...AT 45 KT.  KIKO
IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING...AND THE
SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BECOME A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...OR SOONER.  THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS OR THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STORM HAS
ALREADY TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ABOUT 340/5.  A WEAK MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHALLOW
CYCLONE IN A DAY OR SO...THE FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY TO SLOW TO A
CRAWL WITHIN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS TO THE WEST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND JUST A TAD TO THE
WEST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 22.5N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 23.1N 116.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 23.5N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 23.9N 116.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/0000Z 24.1N 116.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0000Z 24.2N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH