000
WTPZ41 KNHC 012034
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013
 
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF KIKO HAS
DEGRADED SIGNIFICANTLY. DEEP CONVECTION...WHAT LITTLE THERE IS THAT
REMAINS...IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEVERTHELESS...
KIKO REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM BASED ON A 47-KT
SCATTEROMETER WIND REPORT FROM A 1653 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS. AS A
RESULT OF THE SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY
BEING DECREASED TO 50 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/05 KT.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. KIKO IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
GRADUALLY SLOW AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. AS
KIKO WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW CIRCULATION...THE CYCLONE COULD
BECOME STATIONARY AS A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
NHC FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE.
 
KIKO IS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS A TIGHT SST GRADIENT AND WILL BE
MOVING OVER SUB-26C OCEAN TEMPERATURES SHORTLY. IN ADDITION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS STARTED TO INGEST
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO UNFAVORABLE PARAMETERS IS EXPECTED TO
HASTEN THE WEAKENING OF KIKO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RESULT IN
A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS...
WHICH ARE FORECASTING DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM IN 48 AND 96
HOURS...RESPECTIVELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 21.8N 115.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 22.5N 115.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 23.1N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 23.5N 116.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 23.7N 116.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1800Z 24.0N 116.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART