000
WTPZ41 KNHC 011434
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013
 
A TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 1122Z INDICATED THAT KIKO POSSESSED A
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE...BUT THERE WAS NO CLOSED LOW-LEVEL EYE
BENEATH IT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM A CIRA AMSU
ESTIMATE OF 42 KT TO AS HIGH AS 72 KT FROM BOTH CIMSS AMSU AND ADT
ESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH KIKO COULD HAVE BRIEFLY BEEN A HURRICANE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60 KT...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE T3.5/55 KT ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/06 KT.  KIKO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHWARD TODAY AND GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN BEFORE TURNING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS AND MOVES AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  AS KIKO WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE VERTICALLY
SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT COULD GET TRAPPED AND BECOME STATIONARY IN THE
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE
THAT HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCE.  
 
KIKO IS STILL OVER SSTS NEAR 27C...BUT IT WILL BE MOVING OVER
SUB-26C OCEAN TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR
IS LOW...THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD ALSO HASTEN THE WEAKENING OF KIKO. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS WHEN THE
LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLE AFTER THE SYSTEM LOSES
MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF ITS CONVECTION OVER 23-24C SSTS BY THAT
TIME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AS WELL AS THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
INTENSITY MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 21.3N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 21.9N 115.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 22.6N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 23.1N 116.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 23.4N 116.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 23.8N 116.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART