000
WTPZ41 KNHC 010837
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013
 
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF KIKO SEEMS TO HAVE HALTED TONIGHT.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM HAS A
TIGHT INNER CORE...BUT THE CDO HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS SYMMETRIC
WITH THE CENTER NOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION.  THIS MAY BE THE RESULT OF SOME SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEER OVER THE CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 60
KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT ASCAT DATA.
 
KIKO IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHOULD CROSS THE
26C ISOTHERM WITHIN 24 HOURS.  AS A RESULT...KIKO IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN INTENSITY VERY SOON AND COULD STILL BECOME HURRICANE THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THAT IS NO LONGER EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN THE
UPDATED FOREAST.  COOLER SSTS AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR
SHOULD CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT.
KIKO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS
AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 010/6 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AROUND THE EASTERN
PORTION OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  AS KIKO WEAKENS AND BECOME A
SHALLOW SYSTEM IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN
THE LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE LATEST TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
KIKO GAINING MORE LATITUDE BEFORE WEAKENING AND SLOWING DOWN.  AS A
RESULT...THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  HOWEVER...THE UPDATED
TRACK IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 20.6N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 21.4N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 22.2N 115.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 22.8N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 23.1N 116.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 23.5N 116.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN