000
WTPZ41 KNHC 311454
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT WAS AMBIGUOUS ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE CYCLONE.  FORTUNATELY...A 0938Z NOAA-19 AMSU AND A
1217Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASSES WERE HELPFUL IN MORE ACCURATELY LOCATING
ITS CENTER.  THESE INDICATE A MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM OF 325/6...
PRIMARILY DUE TO STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST
OF THE CYCLONE.  AS THE CYCLONE WINDS DOWN IN ABOUT TWO TO THREE
DAYS...IT WILL SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT MORE WESTWARD
INITIAL POSITION AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TAFB...SAB...AND ADT SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT SINCE THE 1200Z
ESTIMATES AND THE SYSTEM COULD BE REACHING TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY
SHORTLY.  HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY BE QUITE SHORT-LIVED...AS COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE LIE ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM STARTING IN
ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN
NOT BRINGING THE CYCLONE HIGHER THAN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.  THE
INTENSITY PREDICTION MIRRORS THIS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS...WHILE
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/1500Z 19.1N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 19.8N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 20.6N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 21.5N 117.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 21.9N 117.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 22.0N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA