000
WTPZ41 KNHC 271446
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FLOSSIE HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN.  THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE THAT WAS APPARENT
EARLIER...AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND BECOME SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT...IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  MARGINAL SSTS...DRY AIR
ALOFT...AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE
STORM ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE
NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...285/17.  THE
STORM SHOULD SLOW A BIT TOMORROW AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST DUE
TO A RETROGRADING RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  ALMOST ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW FLOSSIE NEAR THE SOUTHERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN
60-72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  

FLOSSIE SHOULD BE ACROSS 140W LONGITUDE BY 1800 UTC...SO THE NEXT
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. 
PUBLIC ADVISORIES CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HNLTCPCP1 AND WMO
HEADER WTPA31 PHFO.  FORECAST DISCUSSIONS CAN BE FOUND UNDER
HNLTCDCP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPA41 PHFO.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 17.8N 139.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 18.4N 141.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 19.1N 145.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 19.4N 148.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 19.6N 151.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 20.2N 157.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  31/1200Z 20.6N 164.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE