000
WTPZ41 KNHC 270833
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2013
 
FLOSSIE HAS STRENGTHENED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE
IMAGES SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL EYE A LITTLE BEFORE
0600 UTC...AND GLIMPSES OF THAT FEATURE HAVE BECOME APPARENT IN
RECENT GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE
INCREASED TO 3.5/55 KT...BUT GIVEN THE IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION
SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 60 KT. FLOSSIE HAS
CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM AND IS HEADED FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THESE COOLER WATERS AND DRIER AIR
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO HOLD STEADY IN STRENGTH OR BEGIN TO
WEAKEN.  EVEN THOUGH THE WATER TEMPERATURES INCREASE ALONG THE
EXPECTED TRACK OF FLOSSIE BEGINNING IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WESTERLY
SHEAR AND A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING.
THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN THE SHORT TERM.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM REMAINS ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH AT
ABOUT 17 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT ANOTHER
DAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST. FLOSSIE
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 3
DAYS.
 
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...FLOSSIE WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AROUND 1800 UTC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 17.5N 137.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 18.1N 140.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 18.9N 143.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 19.4N 146.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 19.7N 149.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 20.0N 155.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  31/0600Z 20.5N 162.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI