000
WTPZ41 KNHC 270233
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF FLOSSIE SINCE THE
LAST ADVISORY. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST AND BROKEN CURVED BANDS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUPPORTS HOLDING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 50 KT. THE
TROPICAL STORM IS OVER 26C WATERS AND IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
EVEN COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE LESS
FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE FLOSSIE TO HOLD STEADY IN
STRENGTH OR WEAKEN. EVEN THOUGH THE WATER TEMPERATURES INCREASE
ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF FLOSSIE LATER IN THE FORECAST...
WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

FLOSSIE REMAINS ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE...WITH THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 285/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
WEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
BRINGS THE WEAKENING STORM NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 3
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 17.0N 135.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 17.6N 138.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 18.4N 141.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 19.0N 144.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 19.5N 147.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 19.8N 153.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  31/0000Z 20.0N 160.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI