000
WTPZ41 KNHC 260232
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013
800 PM PDT THU JUL 25 2013

FLOSSIE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED IN CURVED BANDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION AND IN A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 00 UTC WERE UNCHANGED FROM
EARLIER...AND A BLEND OF THE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS ADT STILL SUPPORTS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 KT. THE
TROPICAL STORM COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS IT REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT TIME...HOWEVER...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WHILE FLOSSIE MOVES OVER WATERS THAT
ARE COOLER THAN 26C AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS MORE OR LESS
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
 
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ON A DUE WEST PATH TODAY...AND THE LATEST
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/15. A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION AT
ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY PERIOD AS
FLOSSIE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 15.1N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 15.4N 131.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 16.0N 134.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 16.5N 138.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 17.1N 141.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 18.0N 147.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 18.5N 153.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  31/0000Z 19.0N 159.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI