000
WTPZ41 KNHC 252041
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013
200 PM PDT THU JUL 25 2013
 
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER AND THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FLOSSIE
APPEAR TO BE BETTER DEFINED...THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  NONETHELESS...1736 UTC ASCAT DATA INDICATE
THAT THE CYCLONE HAS MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 40 KT...AND THAT WILL BE
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  FLOSSIE IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME FOR MUCH
MORE STRENGTHENING SINCE THE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO REACH COOLER
WATERS IN ABOUT A DAY.  THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WINDS IS
SHOWN IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWING THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.  BY
DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE DEGENERATED INTO A
REMNANT LOW OR A TROUGH.
 
MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FLOSSIE HAS BEEN MOVING
WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS.  IT APPEARS THAT BECAUSE
FLOSSIE IS A RELATIVELY SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT IS BEING STEERED
WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THERE IS A STRONG AND PERSISTENT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP FLOSSIE ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE SLIGHT SHIFT OBSERVED IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 15.3N 127.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 15.5N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 16.0N 133.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 16.5N 136.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 17.0N 140.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 18.5N 145.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 18.5N 150.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 18.5N 155.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG