000
WTPZ41 KNHC 250838
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013
200 AM PDT THU JUL 25 2013
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS INCREASED IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ACCORDINGLY...THE LASTEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE NUDGED
UPWARD TO 2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. IN ADDITION...A RECENT
ASCAT PASS SHOWED RELIABLE WINDS AROUND 35 KT. BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE.
CONTINUED SLOW STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN A
LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
WATERS THAT ARE COOLER THAN 26C ON FRIDAY. THESE LESS FAVORABLE
OCEANIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND SOME
INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN BEYOND 36 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES GENERALLY NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE
GUIDANCE...BUT IT IS NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 15.5N 123.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 15.9N 126.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 16.4N 129.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 17.3N 132.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 18.0N 135.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 19.6N 141.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 20.5N 146.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 21.0N 151.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI