000
WTPZ41 KNHC 250240
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013
800 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2013
 
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN
TRACKING FOR A FEW DAYS ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HAS
FINALLY DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND CIRCULATION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IN FACT...A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
CIRCULAR CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER
SUGGESTING AN UPWARD INTENSITY TREND. BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK
SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS.
GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER AND THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER... IT IS TOO LATE FOR
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE REACHING
COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.     

THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CIRCULATION HAS JUST BEGUN
TO CONSOLIDATE. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST SINCE
THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS AMPLIFY THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE WESTWARD STEERING IN
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE WHICH IS VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.       

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 15.2N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 15.9N 124.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 16.5N 127.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 17.5N 130.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 18.5N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 20.0N 139.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 20.5N 143.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 21.0N 147.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA