000 WTPZ41 KNHC 152044 TCDEP1 HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 200 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012 PAUL HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TODAY. THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND NOW CONSISTS OF A SYMMETRIC AND COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE EYE HAS ALSO WARMED CONSIDERABLY WHILE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ABRUPTLY INCREASED TO 5.5 AND LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT CI VALUES ARE 6.1. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 105 KT...MAKING PAUL THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/11. PAUL SHOULD BE STEERED CYCLONICALLY AROUND A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CUT OFF TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD CARRY PAUL NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BEND NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...IT CONTINUES ITS TREND OF SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION EPISODE THAT PAUL HAS UNDERGONE TODAY SHOULD SOON COME TO A CLOSE. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST OF PAUL IS FORECAST TO MARKEDLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE CYCLONE SLOWLY DECREASE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS...BUT THE RATE OF WEAKENING SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 36 HOURS ONCE THE SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVELY HIGH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED AGAIN IN THE SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS BUT IS NEARLY UNCHANGED AFTER 36 HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS. THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK...ALONG WITH THE FORECAST WIND RADII...REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND AN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 18.4N 114.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 20.3N 113.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 23.0N 112.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 25.1N 112.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 26.6N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 29.0N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN