000
WTPZ41 KNHC 151452
TCDEP1
 
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
800 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
 
PAUL IS INTENSIFYING. THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING
AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH VERY COLD
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. AN EYE SEEN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY EARLIER
HAS BECOME INTERMITTENTLY VISIBLE IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED TO T4.5 FROM BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES
AT 1200 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 80
KT.
 
PAUL HAS ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED NORTHWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF A
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR 23N 118W DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER 48 HOURS...PAUL SHOULD DECELERATE AND
TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTARD AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS AND
HAS AGAIN SHIFTED FARTHER EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION BUT IS NOT QUITE AS FAR EAST AS THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH PAUL ARE ALREADY GRADUALLY
DECREASING...ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT
TIME...INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST OF PAUL AND EVEN COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT
IN STEADY WEAKENING. THE WEAKENING COULD BECOME MORE RAPID AFTER 48
HOURS WHEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER...AND
THE CYCLONE COULD DECOUPLE AT THAT TIME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD IN THE SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT INTENSIFICATION.
  
THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK...ALONG WITH THE FORECAST WIND
RADII...REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A
PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND AN EXTENSION OF
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 17.3N 114.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 19.1N 114.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 21.6N 113.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 24.2N 113.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 26.0N 114.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 28.4N 116.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN