000
WTPZ41 KNHC 162037
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2011
 
ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN VANISHED...LEAVING IRWIN
AS A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL. GIVEN THE CURRENT PRESENTATION OF THE
CYCLONE AND THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND AN
INCREASE IN EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE IRWIN TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE NHC FORECAST IS LOWERED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND NOW SHOWS IRWIN DISSIPATING IN THREE TO
FOUR DAYS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
NOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EASY TO LOCATE...THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE LATEST 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 225/4.
HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT IRWIN MAY BE
MOVING A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS
UNCHANGED. IRWIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...THE WEAK SYSTEM COULD CURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST 
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 13.6N 108.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 13.8N 108.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 14.1N 109.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 14.2N 109.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1800Z 14.0N 109.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1800Z 13.4N 108.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI