000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180838
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062011
200 AM PDT THU AUG 18 2011
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED NEAR THE CENTER OF FERNANDA AND A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS FORMED IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.5
ON THE DVORAK SCALE INDICATING THE WINDS ARE NOW 55 KNOTS. SINCE
FERNANDA WILL SOON BE MOVING INTO A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS AND
OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD
BEGIN.  AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO BE A
REMNANT LOW BY THE TIME IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0618 UTC ASCAT.
 
FERNANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF
140W. HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS...AS ANTICIPATED BY GLOBAL
MODELS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACQUIRE A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT. LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...FERNANDA OR ITS REMNANTS WILL BECOME
STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...FERNANDA WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AROUND 1200 UTC.
THEREFORE...THE NEXT 1500 UTC ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HNLTCPCP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPA41 PHFO. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE FOUND
UNDER HNLTCPC1 AND WMO HEADER WTPA41 PHFO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0900Z 13.4N 139.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 14.0N 141.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 14.5N 143.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 15.5N 145.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 16.0N 147.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  21/0600Z 17.0N 151.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  22/0600Z 17.0N 155.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA