000 WTPZ41 KNHC 172111 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062011 200 PM PDT WED AUG 17 2011 CORRECTED TYPO IN SECOND PARAGRAPH AND STATUS IN TABLE AT 72H ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IN FERNANDA HAS STAGED A COMEBACK DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE OVERALL DEPTH OF THE CONVECTION IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW. MICROWAVE IMAGERY STILL INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING A WELL ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE...WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING... AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THEREFORE HELD AT 45 KT. FERNANDA HAS BEGUN MOVING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 290/07. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE RESPONDING TO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS FORMED IN RESPONSE TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH NOW SLOWLY LIFTING OUT ALONG 140W. THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CAUSE FERNANDA TO CONTINUE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD ONCE FERNANDA WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO SINCE THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. ALTHOUGH FERNANDA REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...IT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE NEARBY STRATOCUMULUS FIELD SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE MAY ALSO BE TAPPING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THIS MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GREATER POLEWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION THE STORM IS NOW EXPERIENCING SHOULD BRING THE STORM OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS AFTER 24 HOURS...AND STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY THEN. THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SHEAR AND NEAR 25C WATERS AFTER 48 HOURS COULD RESULT IN A RATHER RAPID DEMISE. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS NUDGED DOWNWARD...AT THE LOW END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH POST-TROPICAL STATUS NOW FORECAST SOONER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 12.1N 138.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 12.8N 139.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 13.6N 141.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 14.4N 142.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 15.1N 144.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 16.0N 148.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1800Z 16.6N 153.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN