000
WTPZ41 KNHC 121437
TCDEP1
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 12 2011
 
ADRIAN IS ESSENTIALLY A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
EXCEPT FOR A FEW TRANSIENT PUFFS OF DEEP CONVECTION. SINCE ADRIAN
HAS LARGELY BEEN DEVOID OF CONVECTION FOR A WHILE NOW...IT NO
LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS BEING DECLARED A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...BASED UPON AN
EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND THE STILL VIGOROUS APPEARANCE OF THE
CIRCULATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE
IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS
ADRIAN IS MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS...AND GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST DISSIPATION WITHIN 24-48 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10 AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF
ADRIAN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATING
AS IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
SINCE THE MODELS FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT ASSUME A STRONGER SYSTEM
WHEN ADRIAN IS ALREADY A SHALLOW CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS WHICH WEAKEN ADRIAN
FASTER.
 
THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON ADRIAN.  FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 16.5N 115.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  13/0000Z 17.1N 116.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  13/1200Z 17.8N 117.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/0000Z 18.7N 118.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN