000
WTPZ41 KNHC 120836
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 12 2011
 
ADRIAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
DIMINISHED AROUND 0400 UTC...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW MAINLY
CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0430
UTC REVEALED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 35 KT...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING HAS LIKELY OCCURRED SINCE THAT TIME. THEREFORE...ADRIAN
HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER 25 C WATERS AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER EVEN COOLER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THESE COOL WATERS...A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND AN INCREASE IN
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE ADRIAN TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE
REMNANT LOW DISSIPATE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
 
ADRIAN IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT.  SEVERAL OF THE TRACK
MODELS INSIST ON TAKING THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANTS...
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW IN
NATURE...A NORTHWARD TRACK APPEARS UNREASONABLE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS ON THE FAR LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0900Z 16.1N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 16.5N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  13/0600Z 17.2N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  13/1800Z 18.0N 117.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/0600Z 19.0N 118.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI