000
WTPZ41 KNHC 120247
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 11 2011
 
A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION FORMED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ADRIAN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY HAVE BRIEFLY HALTED THE WEAKENING PROCESS. SINCE THEN...
HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON WANE. AN AVERAGE OF SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ADRIAN HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST...OR 275/10. MOST
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES ADRIAN WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN TURN THE SYSTEM TOWARD NORTHWEST OR
NORTH. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT GAIN IN LATITUDE SEEMS RATHER
UNLIKELY SINCE ADRIAN IS WEAKENING INTO A SHALLOW SYSTEM RATHER
THAN MAINTAINING VERTICAL INTEGRITY LIKE MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ADRIAN HAS BEEN SHEARED MORE
THAN 200 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING. THE RESULT IS THAT ADRIAN AND ITS SHALLOW REMNANTS ARE
NOW EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MORE OF A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWARD MOTION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES ALONG THE EXTREME LEFT SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

NOW THAT THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED...
ADRIAN SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY DUE TO COOLER SSTS...A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...AND INCREASING WESTERLY WIND
SHEAR. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF MODEST CONVECTION FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR CONTINUED
WEAKENING...WITH ADRIAN BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN 18-24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0300Z 15.8N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 16.1N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 16.7N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  13/1200Z 17.3N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/0000Z 18.5N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART