000
WTPZ41 KNHC 110238
TCDEP1
 
HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
800 PM PDT FRI JUN 10 2011
 
THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF ADRIAN HAS BEEN STEADILY ERODING DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS AND THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL
IMAGERY. TAFB AND SAB SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AS
WELL AS UW-CIMSS ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WERE 5.5/102 KT
AT 00Z. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM SINCE THEN AND
THE RATHER DISHEVELED-LOOKING CDO SUGGESTS THAT ADRIAN IS PROBABLY
WEAKER. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT...WHICH
COULD BE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/08. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION TOWARD
COLDER WATERS FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA.
BY 72-96 HOURS...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA...WHICH MAY WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE RIDGE AND ALLOW ADRIAN TO MOVE MORE POLEWARD. HOWEVER...BY
THAT TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY
HAVE DECOUPLED DUE TO SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY SHEAR AND COLD SSTS NEAR
22C....RESULTING IN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING STEERED MORE
WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES WHILE THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS ARE FORCED NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS.

ADRIAN IS CURRENTLY OVER 26.5C SSTS AND COOLER WATERS LIE AHEAD OF
THE CYCLONE. ALSO...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE COMBINATION
OF COLDER SSTS AND HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CAUSE RAPID
WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE RATE OF
WEAKENING COULD EVEN BE FASTER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. 
ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 96-120 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY
MODELS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 15.6N 109.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 15.9N 110.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 16.3N 111.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 16.7N 113.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 17.4N 113.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z 18.7N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0000Z 20.0N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART