000
WTPZ41 KNHC 102034
TCDEP1
 
HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 10 2011
 
THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF ADRIAN IS NOT AS SYMMETRIC THIS
AFTERNOON AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
DROPPING.  USING A BLEND OF ODT AND THE SUBJECTIVE DATA T AND
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS PROVIDES AN INTENSITY OF 110 KT. THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND BY LATE
SATURDAY SHOULD BE OVER SUB-26C SSTS AS WELL AS BEING AFFECTED BY
STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE
WINDS DOWN GRADUALLY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS THEN WITH WEAKENING AT
A FASTER RATE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN FOUR TO FIVE DAYS.  THIS
FORECAST IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL AND SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
 
ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT STEERED
PRIMARILY BY THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME OF THE MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS AND
THE HURRICANE MODELS DRIVEN BY THE GFS...INDICATE A MORE VIGOROUS
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE SHARPLY TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DESPITE THE STRONG SHEAR AND HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMICS. THIS FORECAST RELIES MORE UPON THE ECMWF...UKMET...
AND NOGAPS MODELS...WHICH SHOW A WEAKER VORTEX MOVING MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE TRACK PREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN MORE POLEWARD AT THREE AND FOUR DAYS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 15.5N 108.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 15.9N 110.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 16.3N 111.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 16.7N 112.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 17.2N 113.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  14/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA