000
WTPZ41 KNHC 101433
TCDEP1
 
HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE STILL CONSISTS OF A DISTINCT EYE
AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING
THE EYE HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE
DECREASED...YIELDING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS.  WITH NO
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ANTICIPATED...THE INTERACTION OF THE
CYCLONE WITH THE STRONG SST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE
THE MAIN CAUSE FOR ADRIAN TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.
WEAKENING COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS SUGGESTED BY SOME
MODELS LIKE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE ECMWF. 

ADRIAN CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF THE STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING
PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE...THEREFORE...THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE
ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS UNTIL
DISSIPATION. IF ADRIAN REMAINS STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT COULD
ACQUIRE A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
REGARDLESS...ADRIAN STILL WILL BE A WEAKENING CYCLONE MOVING OVER
COOL WATERS WELL AWAY FROM MEXICO.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 15.3N 107.6W  115 KT 135 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 15.6N 109.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 16.0N 110.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 16.3N 112.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 16.8N 113.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 17.5N 114.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  14/1200Z 18.5N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  15/1200Z 20.0N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA