000
WTPZ41 KNHC 100839
TCDEP1
 
HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 10 2011

ADRIAN APPEARS TO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  WHILE IT CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED 20 N MI
WIDE EYE...THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE DURING THE
PAST 6-12 HR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 127 KT FROM TAFB
AND 115 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 120 KT.  THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
POOR ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/8.  ADRIAN IS SOUTH OF A LOW/
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC...AND
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
STEER THE HURRICANE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HR.  AFTER
THAT...THE CYCLONE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF ADRIAN.  SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THE STORM SHEARING APART IN RESPONSE TO THIS...WITH THE
MID-LEVEL CENTER TURNING NORTHWARD AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
DRIFTING WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES
WITH THIS SCENARIO AND FORECASTS A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
AFTER 48 HR.  HOWEVER...IF ADRIAN STAYS STRONGER THAN FORECAST...IT
WOULD LIKELY TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS FORECAST BY THE GFS...GFDL...
AND HWRF MODELS.  OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CHANGED
LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
 
ADRIAN IS LIKELY AT OR NEAR PEAK INTENSITY AS IT IS NOW MOVING OVER
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE HURRICANE HAS A SOMEWHAT
ANNULAR STRUCTURE WITH NO CURRENT EVIDENCE OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
FIRST 24-36 HR WHILE IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND
ENVIRONMENT.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER LESS FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AFTER 36-48 HR...AND DUE TO THE SHEARING APART
MENTIONED ABOVE SOME GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING
COMPLETELY BEFORE 120 HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE A
LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE MODELS AND SHOW ADRIAN WEAKENING
TO A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HR.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 15.0N 106.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 15.3N 107.7W  115 KT 135 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 15.7N 109.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 16.0N 111.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 16.3N 112.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 17.0N 113.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  14/0600Z 18.0N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  15/0600Z 19.0N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN