000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100237 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 800 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011 ADRIAN HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EYE IS NOW ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE AND NEARLY EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF A ROUND CDO...WHICH CONTAINS CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -75C. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE T6.5/127 KT AND T5.5/102 KT...RESPECTIVELY. UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN AVERAGING AROUND T6.1/118 KT AND NHC ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS T6.7/130 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 120 KT...MAINLY DUE TO INTERMITTENT BREAKS IN THE -70C/WHITE RING SURROUNDING THE EYE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF ADRIAN THAT EXTENDS FROM MAINLAND MEXICO WESTWARD ACROSS BAJA AND INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN INTACT FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND TOWARD GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NONE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES ADRIAN ACROSS ANY LAND AREAS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS...HOWEVER...STILL HAVE A PRONOUNCED NORTHWARD BIAS TOWARD BAJA AFTER 48 HOURS...WHICH IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN OUTLIER SCENARIO DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. SINCE ADRIAN REMAINS BASICALLY ON TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. ADRIAN HAS INTENSIFIED 85 KT OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS...AND IS LIKELY NEAR PEAK INTENSITY SINCE SUCH LONG DURATION RAPID INTENSIFICATION EVENTS ARE QUITE RARE. HAVING SAID THAT...MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ADRIAN HAS STABILIZED AS AN ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH A 20-25 NMI DIAMETER EYE. WITH NO CURRENT INDICATIONS THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ABOUT TO BEGIN... SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE HURRICANE REMAINS OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C AND IN LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF 5 KT OR LESS. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE BY 24 HOURS AS ADRIAN ENCOUNTERS SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING FORECAST BY 48 HOURS AND BEYOND AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SUB-26C SSTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM INTENSITY MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 14.6N 105.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 14.9N 106.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 15.3N 108.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 15.6N 109.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 16.0N 111.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 16.6N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 17.4N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 18.7N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER STEWART