000
WTPZ41 KNHC 092032
TCDEP1
 
HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
200 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011
 
DURING MOST OF THE DAY...ADRIAN HAS MAINTAINED A VERY DISTINCT EYE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WRAPPED BY A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. RECENTLY...THE CONVECTIVE BAND
HAS WEAKENED...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE AN
ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH A LARGE EYE AND A CDO. THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES
TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS.
 
THE HURRICANE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...BUT
SINCE ADRIAN IS BECOMING ANNULAR...IT WILL PROBABLY FLUCTUATE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AND WILL NOT WEAKEN UNTIL THE CIRCULATION
BECOMES WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
ADRIAN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT
8 KNOTS...TRAPPED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING FARTHER
WESTWARD BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF THE HURRICANE FOR THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. ADRIAN COULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AS IT
WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE RELIABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER RUNS
AND CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AWAY FROM
THE COAST OF MEXICO.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 14.4N 104.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 14.7N 106.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 15.0N 107.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 15.5N 109.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 15.8N 110.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 16.5N 112.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA