000
WTPZ41 KNHC 091433
TCDEP1
 
HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
800 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011
 
ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
RATHER LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE HURRICANE
DISPLAYS A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH NO SIGNS OF
SHEAR. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED THIS MORNING...AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100
KNOTS. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
 
THE HURRICANE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...OR
AT LEAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY BEFORE THE CIRCULATION
BEGINS TO BE AFFECTED BY STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR
SO. BY THEN...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.
 
A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND
NORTHERN MEXICO HAS EXPANDED AND CONSEQUENTLY...ADRIAN HAS ACQUIRED
A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285 DEGREES AT
8 KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING
AND BUILD FARTHER WESTWARD BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OF
THE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. BY THEN...ADRIAN SHOULD BE
WEAKER AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE AND IN FACT...NONE
OF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...TURN THE HURRICANE
NORTHWARD AS INDICATED YESTERDAY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 14.2N 104.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 14.5N 105.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 15.8N 109.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  13/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  14/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA