000 WTPZ41 KNHC 090844 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 200 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011 ADRIAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. A JUST-RECEIVED TRMM OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE UNDER THE CDO...AND THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS OF THIS FEATURE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 77 KT AT 0600 UTC...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/10...FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT FOR THE NEXT 72 HR ADRIAN WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THIS PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE- SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THE GFS...GFDL... AND HWRF RESPOND TO THIS BY FORECASTING ADRIAN TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST ADRIAN TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE THE TROUGH CAN TURN IT NORTHWARD. SINCE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING OVER COLDER WATER BY THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS MORE ON THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS IN CALLING FOR A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR THE HURRICANE... CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. ASSUMING THAT THE DRY AIR DOES NOT REACH THE INNER CORE...ADRIAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 24 TO 36 HR...WITH SLOW WEAKENING AFTER THAT. IN ADDITION...THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO ENTER A LESS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IN ABOUT 72 HR....WHICH IS FORECAST TO CAUSE A MORE RAPID WEAKENING. THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 14.2N 103.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 14.7N 104.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 15.2N 106.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 15.7N 107.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 16.2N 108.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 18.5N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER BEVEN