000 WTPZ41 KNHC 090250 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 800 PM PDT WED JUN 08 2011 ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN AND A RAGGED EYE ON THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES...WITH SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER THAN EARLIER TODAY. IN ADDITION...A 37 GHZ WINDSAT MICROWAVE PASS AT 0020 UTC INDICATES A CLOSED RING AND INCREASED ORGANIZATION TO THE EYEWALL. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC WERE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT SINCE THAT TIME THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET CONSERVATIVELY TO 70 KT. THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE LEFT AND HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL STEER ADRIAN ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE HAS BEEN ANOTHER LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...LED BY THE NOGAPS AND GFS MODELS. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION BUT IS STILL TO THE EAST OF MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. WHILE THE HWRF/GFDL/GFDN MODELS ARE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THEY ARE CONSIDERED HIGHLY UNLIKELY SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING DURING ITS ENTIRE LIFE CYCLE...AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF REASON TO THINK THIS WILL STOP ANYTIME SOON. THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS VERY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...AND SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD STAY ABOVE 29C FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ANOTHER 24H PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE... BOTH OF WHICH SHOW ADRIAN AS A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER VERY COOL WATERS IN ABOUT 3 DAYS... WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING PROCESS. AS A RESULT OF THE LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE... THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK...AND A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN THE ASSOCIATED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 13.8N 102.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 14.4N 103.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 15.1N 104.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 15.6N 105.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 16.1N 106.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 17.5N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 18.5N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE