000
WTPZ41 KNHC 081442
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
800 AM PDT WED JUN 08 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ADRIAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...WITH
A WELL-DEFINED LARGE CURVED BAND WRAPPING MORE THAN THREE-QUARTERS
OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 55
KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 1200 UTC...BUT SINCE THAT TIME THE
CONVECTIVE BAND HAS GAINED CURVATURE AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED NEAR
THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.
 
A 1059 UTC SSMI PASS SHOWED WHAT MIGHT BE THE BEGINNING OF A BANDED
EYE FEATURE. IN ADDITION...THIS PASS AND RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER HAS JOGGED NORTHWARD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND THE LATEST 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/5.
ALTHOUGH THE STORM HAS CHANGED ITS HEADING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR
SO...THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED.  A GENERAL
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE
RIGHT...OR NORTH...MAINLY DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND POSITION.  
THIS PUTS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSER TO...BUT STILL TO THE LEFT
OF...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION APPEARS VERY LIKELY AS ADRIAN STILL LIES
OVER ABOUT 30C WATERS AND IN A VERY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  IN
FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS ABOUT A 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN NUDGED UPWARD AND SHOWS
ADRIAN INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN MORE
SLOWLY THROUGH 48 HOURS.  AFTER 72 HOURS...ADRIAN WILL BE MOVING
OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.
 
DUE TO THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST...A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 12.9N 100.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 13.5N 101.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 14.2N 102.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 14.9N 103.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 15.5N 104.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 16.5N 106.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 17.5N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 18.5N 110.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN