000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080246 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 07 2011 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING NEAR THE CENTER HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL ROTATION NOTED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...INCREASED ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN MICROWAVE DATA...WITH EVIDENCE OF AN INNER-CORE STRUCTURE ON 0104 UTC SSMI/S IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT...MAKING THIS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. ADRIAN HAS NOT BEEN MOVING VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A LONGER-TERM MOTION OF ABOUT 300/3. THE CYCLONE IS CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OVER MEXICO. THIS CHANGE IN STEERING SHOULD RESULT IN ADRIAN TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE REMAINS A FAIR BIT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS THE HWRF/GFDL SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTH CLOSER TO MEXICO BEFORE MAKING THAT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. GIVEN THE HISTORICAL BIASES OF THOSE MODELS...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODELS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR NEAR ADRIAN WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 30C ALONG ITS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS RIPE FOR INTENSIFICATION...PERHAPS EVEN OF THE RAPID VARIETY. INDEED THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE INDICATES A 59 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MOST NEGATIVE FACTOR AGAINST THIS OCCURRING IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THAT DRY AIR WOULD TAKE SOME TIME PENETRATING THE CORE REGIONS...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT ANY SHEARING MECHANISM TO ACCELERATE THAT PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING CONSIDERABLE INTENSIFICATION...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...ADRIAN SHOULD BE OVER COOLER WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT... RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 11.8N 100.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 12.2N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 13.0N 101.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 13.9N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 14.5N 103.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 15.5N 105.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 16.0N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE