000
WTPZ41 KNHC 072043
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 07 2011
 
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT AN ORGANIZED PATTERN OF
DEEP CONVECTION...WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND COVERING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOW
2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ARE THE BASIS FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.
 
SYNOPTIC STEERING FLOW REMAINS WEAK...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 295/3. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. BEYOND THAT TIME...A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WESTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO IMPART A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
THROUGH DAY 5.  THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
NORTHWARD TRACK BIASES AND THUS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN WEIGHTED LESS
HEAVILY THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...
WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT 4 DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TO A
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT
DAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM
GUIDANCE.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 11.7N 100.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 12.2N 100.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 12.8N 100.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 13.6N 101.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 14.5N 102.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 15.2N 104.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 16.0N 106.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 17.0N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI