000
WTPZ41 KNHC 032310
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112010
400 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010
 
AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 1920 UTC INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS DEVELOPED A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER THAT IS CLOSELY SURROUNDED BY SEVERAL CURVED
BANDS OF CONVECTION.  ADVISORIES ARE THEREFORE BEING INITIATED ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E.  THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN COAST...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS A SLOW 315/2 KT.  MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COAST OF OAXACA IN MEXICO WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE DEPRESSION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY 36 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...IT
WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION FOR THE
DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT REACHES LAND.  THE
SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE REACHING A MAXIMUM INTENSITY
OF 35-40 KT BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THIS THINKING.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING
ONSHORE...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PART OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  EVEN
THOUGH A WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL TAKE
THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY THAT NORMALLY WOULD
HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT 0000 UTC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2300Z 15.1N  94.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 15.5N  94.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 16.8N  95.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN