000
WTPZ41 KNHC 160231
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062010
800 PM PDT THU JUL 15 2010
 
THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE
WITHOUT INNER CORE FEATURES. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A FEW 
RAINBANDS SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION AND A RECENT SMALL
BURST NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT
THE DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 25 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHEAR HAS APPARENTLY
RELAXED A LITTLE...BASED ON HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS ON SATELLITE
IMAGES. WHILE THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHORT-TERM
INTENSIFICATION...THE DEPRESSION IS ALREADY APPROACHING COOLER
WATERS MAKING STRENGTHENING UNLIKELY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.          

BECAUSE IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.  A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS FORCING THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD.
ONCE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OCCURS...THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS
SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 16.7N 109.0W    25 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 17.3N 110.2W    25 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 17.9N 112.0W    25 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 18.2N 113.9W    25 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 18.4N 115.8W    25 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 18.5N 119.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI