000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150836
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062010
200 AM PDT THU JUL 15 2010
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS STILL STRUGGLING AGAINST STRONG
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND ONLY WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
HAS IT BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 2.0
AND 1.5...RESPECTIVELY...BUT A 0352 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT CAUGHT THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION SHOWED NO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN CASE THERE ARE
STRONGER WINDS IN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION...BUT IT IS
REASONABLE THAT THIS COULD BE A 25-KT SYSTEM.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN IT SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 26.5C BY DAY 3.  NONE OF THE
INTENSITY MODELS MAKES THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM...BUT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
STRENGTHENING BY 48 HOURS WHEN THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
 
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...BUT ITS AVERAGE MOTION IS 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT.  A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE
CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD COURSE.  WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF A WEAK SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ESPECIALLY AT 72 AND 96
HOURS.
 
REPORTS FROM THE NOAA SHIP KAIMIMOANA...LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
DEPRESSION...WERE HELPFUL IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 15.2N 108.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 15.5N 109.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.2N 111.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 16.8N 112.9W    30 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 17.2N 114.9W    35 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 17.5N 118.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 17.5N 122.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG