000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150231
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062010
800 PM PDT WED JUL 14 2010
 
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION BUT REMAINS
STRONGLY SHEARED. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST
OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH IN FACT...HAS WEAKENED
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND CONTINUITY. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR REMAINING
QUITE STRONG FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR
LESS. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE SHEAR ABATES...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER COOL WATERS. THEREFORE...ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
UNANIMOUSLY SUGGESTED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. 

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE...FOLLOWED BY A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED MAINLY BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 15.2N 107.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 15.6N 109.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.2N 110.7W    30 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 16.7N 112.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 17.1N 114.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 17.5N 118.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 18.0N 122.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 18.5N 126.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA