000
WTPZ41 KNHC 142035
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062010
200 PM PDT WED JUL 14 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN
MOVING PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED AND HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO
BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KT IS BASED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KT AND 30 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 285/11.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS GRADUALLY BUILD A RIDGE FROM THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS
WESTWARD TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO BY DAY 3...AND
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY DAY 5. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING
IN A STEADY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE PAST 3
DAYS AND THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
EXPECTED IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE THAT WOULD ALTER THAT GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SPEED OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS....TVCN.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING 25-30 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR FOR
THE PAST 2 DAYS...AND THIS CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS
ERODED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THERE WILL LIKELY
BE ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER LATER TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY NOT BE SUSTAINED UNTIL THE SHEAR DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS. BUT BY THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING OVER COOLER WATER...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.

DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND FORECAST MOTION...THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM MEXICO. THEREFORE...NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS
ARE REQUIRED.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 14.9N 107.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 15.3N 108.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 15.8N 110.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.2N 112.3W    35 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 16.6N 114.1W    40 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 17.2N 118.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 17.6N 122.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 126.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART