000
WTPZ41 KNHC 300229
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012010
800 PM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
AGATHA CROSSED THE COAST EARLIER TODAY ABOUT 330 PM PDT...2230
UTC...IN THE VICINITY OF THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER. THE CYCLONE
DEVELOPED A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION AS IT WAS MOVING
INLAND. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF EL SALVADOR REPORTED STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE WAVES ALONG THE COAST EARLIER TODAY WHILE
DATA FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN GUATEMALA REPORTED RAINFALL
TOTALS OF UP TO 15 INCHES.  THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS
FROM THE SURROUNDING STATIONS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS. SINCE AGATHA IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
WEAKENING...AND AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO.

AGATHA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY FAVORS A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD NORTHEAST ABOUT 4 TO 6 KNOTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. DESPITE THE EXPECTED
WEAKENING...THE CYCLONE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA... EL SALVADOR...AND HONDURAS.

ALTHOUGH ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED AT THIS
TIME...A FEW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD STILL OCCUR IN
SQUALLS PRIMARILY OVER WATER. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0300Z 14.9N  92.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 15.5N  91.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     31/0000Z 16.0N  91.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 36HR VT     31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI