000
WTPZ41 KNHC 161122
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162009
430 AM PDT WED SEP 16 2009
  
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED. DVORAK T-NUMBER HAVE ALSO INCREASED INDICATING THAT
THE SYSTEM IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. VISIBLE IMAGES LATER THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE LOCATION OF
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS AND
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AND THE DEPRESSION
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. IN FACT...THE
SYSTEM COULD BE A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS OR EARLIER.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...EMBEDDED WITHIN
LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. A WEAK RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
MEXICO AND WILL PROVIDE SOME NORTH-NORTHWEST STEERING TO THE
CYCLONE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1130Z 18.7N 112.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 18.9N 112.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 19.5N 113.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N 113.2W    30 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 21.0N 113.5W    25 KT
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 22.5N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 24.0N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA