000
WTPZ41 KNHC 191451
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012009
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 19 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WHILE NONE OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS STRENGTHENING...THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM
WATER AND THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SMALL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
SHOWS THE SYSTEM BRIEFLY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...BUT DOES NOT
BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
WHILE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOT BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME...
ONE COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/09. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER AND
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHOWS A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK BEFORE DISSIPATION BY 48 HOURS
OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. IF THE DEPRESSION WEAKENS FASTER THAN
INDICATED...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER COULD BE LEFT BEHIND TO MEANDER
BETWEEN LAS ISLAS MARIAS AND MAINLAND MEXICO.
 
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO. IN ADDITION...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 21.0N 107.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 22.0N 106.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 23.2N 106.6W    30 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 24.2N 106.6W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG