000
WTPZ41 KNHC 190833
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012009
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 19 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS
BECOMING SHEARED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. STRONG SOUTHERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE DEPRESSION AND
THE CHANCES FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
LANDFALL ARE DIMINISHING. IN FACT...NONE 0600 UTC GUIDANCE SHOWS
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE OCEAN IS WARM...AND THE SHEAR
IS STILL LOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS
FOR MEXICO ARE KEPT IN PLACE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/10. THE DEPRESSION IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHARP MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THIS PATTERN FAVORS A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNTIL
DISSIPATION OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE DEPRESSION WEAKENS FASTER THAN INDICATED AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS MEANDERING BETWEEN ISLAS MARIAS AND MAINLAND MEXICO
WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES RACING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS IS
THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY SOME GLOBAL MODELS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 19.7N 107.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 21.0N 106.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 22.0N 106.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 23.5N 106.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 24.5N 106.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN