000 WTPZ41 KNHC 182031 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009 200 PM PDT THU JUN 18 2009 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... JUST NORTH OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 30 KT BASED ON AN EXCELLENT 1643 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED A PATCH OF WIND RETRIEVALS NEAR 30 KT SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THIS INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 1800 UTC. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 360/06. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK. THE HWRF AND DEEP-LAYER BAM BOTH TAKE THE VORTEX UNREALISTICALLY FAR TO THE NORTH AFTER LANDFALL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS...GFDL...CANADIAN AND NOGAPS EITHER SHOW THE CYCLONE MAKING A SHARP SOUTHEASTWARD TURN BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OR LOSE THE VORTEX ENTIRELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT AND IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND BY 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE FORWARD SPEED IS DECREASED AT 36 AND 48 HOURS GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASING OVER THE SYSTEM TONIGHT...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 20 KT. WHILE THE SHIPS AND THE LGEM SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH 48 HOURS...THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW THE SYSTEM GETTING CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. GIVEN THAT IT WOULD TAKE ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST. THE INTENSITY PROBABILITIES SHOW A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SYSTEM BEING A TROPICAL STORM AT 24 HOURS AND 36 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 18.3N 108.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 19.4N 108.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 21.0N 107.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 22.6N 107.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 24.1N 106.9W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG