000
WTPZ41 KNHC 121429
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2008
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA FROM MEXICO CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
ODILE IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS SHAPELESS AND DEEP
CONVECTION IS MINIMAL. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO ONLY REPORTED RAIN AND PRESSURES RISING WITH LIGHT WINDS.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KNOTS.  SINCE WE DO NOT HAVE
ENOUGH VISIBLE IMAGES AT THIS TIME...WE ARE KEEPING ODILE AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THIS ADVISORY. THE DEPRESSION MOST LIKELY
WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
 
BECAUSE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER...THE ESTIMATES OF THE
INITIAL MOTION HAVE BEEN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. I HAVE USED CONTINUITY TO
LOCATE THE CENTER BUT I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE
CENTER HAS MOVED INLAND AND IS DISSIPATING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST
UNTIL DISSIPATION LATER TODAY OR MONDAY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 19.5N 105.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 19.8N 106.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 20.0N 107.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA