000
WTPZ41 KNHC 120248
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008

THE LOCATION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF ODILE ARE HARD TO DETERMINE
THIS EVENING.  WHAT LOW CLOUDS THAT CAN BE SEEN IN INFRARED IMAGERY
ALONG WITH AN AMSU OVERPASS NEAR 00Z SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS NOW
ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE STRONG...BUT DISORGANIZED...
CONVECTION.  THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PREVIOUS AFFECTING THE SYSTEM BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  WHILE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM
SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION
FROM EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA.  THE WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN REVISED
BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...AND MAY NEED TO BE REVISED AGAIN IF A
GOOD SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS OCCURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 300/10.  ODILE REMAINS ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...WITH THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS STILL FORECASTING WEAK RIDGING TO DEVELOP NORTH
OF ODILE AS HURRICANE NORBERT DISSIPATES OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. 
THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE ONLY GLOBAL
MODEL THAT HANGS ON TO ODILE FOR 5 DAYS...THE ECMWF...CALLS FOR IT
TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE BAM MODELS FORECAST
A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE PACIFIC WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES AND CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION SIMILAR TO THAT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS FORECAST...
WHILE IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...DOES NOT LIE PARTICULARLY CLOSE TO
ANY GUIDANCE MODEL.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.  FIRST...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD CAUSE ODILE TO
MAKE LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SECOND...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE EASTERLY SHEAR TO INCREASE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   THE GFDL...HWRF...AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST ODILE TO DISSIPATE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR
AND LAND INTERACTION...AND THAT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. 
HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH OF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THE NEXT 24-48 HR...IT
MAY FIND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST TO
RE-INTENSIFY...AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL.  WITH THESE EXTREME
POSSIBILITIES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST COMPROMISES BY FOLLOWING THE
SCENARIO OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT ODILE WILL BE DISRUPTED
ENOUGH BY THE SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION THAT IT WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO RECOVER OVER OPEN WATER.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW
WEAKENING...WITH ODILE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 18.2N 103.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 18.9N 105.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 19.4N 106.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 19.5N 107.6W    30 KT
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 19.5N 108.4W    25 KT
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 19.5N 109.5W    25 KT
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     17/0000Z 19.5N 110.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN