000
WTPZ41 KNHC 112036
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
 
I WILL HAVE TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS IN THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ON
ITS WAY TO NORBERT...WENT THROUGH ODILE AND FOUND A VERY
DISORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
WERE QUITE WEAK AND THE SFMR MEASURED 40 TO 45 KNOTS IN SMALL AREA
NEAR THE CENTER AND I AM NOT SURE IF THESE SFMR WINDS ARE GOOD OR
NOT. MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED WAS 1009 MB BUT COULD BE LOWER
BECAUSE THE CYCLONE WAS VERY DISORGANIZED AND THE DROPSONDE DID NOT
HIT THE SURFACE CENTER. A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN SATELLITE
ESTIMATES...CONTINUITY AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS TO ADJUST THE
INITIAL INTENSITY DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BUT THIS IS VERY GENEROUS. I AM
NOT GOING TO WRITE AT THIS TIME THE REASON OF SUCH SUDDEN DEMISE OF
THE STORM BECAUSE I DO NOT HAVE THE ANSWER. HOWEVER...I WILL BE
GIVING CREDIT TO NUMERICAL MODELS WHICH HAS BEEN INSISTING ON
DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM QUICKLY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS
FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND THIS COULD HAPPEN QUICKER IF THE CENTER
MOVES INLAND OR THERE IS MORE INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER...IF
THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS REASONS FOR A
RAPID WEAKENING.  I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS TO BE REVERSED AGAIN.
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305 DEGREES OR NORTHWEST
AT 10 KNOTS. THIS MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER HAS
BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SINCE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM THE MODEL TRACKERS ARE NOT AVAILABLE.  HOWEVER
MOST OF THE MODELS DO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE OVER MEXICO
AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE A WESTWARD COMPONENT TO THE
CYCLONE. ODILLE SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND WEST SOON AS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
ODILE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...HAS REALLY FOOLED ME AS ODILE...THE
EVIL CHARACTER IN THE BALLET SWAN LAKE...FOOLED THE PRINCE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 17.9N 102.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 18.6N 104.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 19.3N 106.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 19.5N 107.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 19.5N 108.0W    25 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 19.5N 109.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/1800Z 19.5N 110.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA