000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110858 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008 200 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008 ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER...IT APPEARS TO BE WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. A PAIR OF MICROWAVE PASSES BEFORE 06Z SUGGESTED INCREASED CORE BANDING...AND THE 06Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T3.5. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT...WITH THE STATISTICAL SHIPS/LGEM MODELS FORECASTING ODILE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS...WHILE THE DYNAMICAL GFDL/HWRF SHOW IMMEDIATE WEAKENING. GIVEN THE RECENT INTENSFICATION...AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT LESSENING OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. IN 36-48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR... AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12...WITH THE FASTER SPEED PERHAPS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE AND A STRONGER INTERACTION WITH THE STRONGER EASTERLIES ALOFT. THE FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED...WITH A TURN TO THE WEST EXPECTED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND HURRICANE NORBERT. UNTIL THEN...THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE IN ACCORD WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS. ONLY THE HWRF AND NOGAPS BRING THE CENTER INLAND. AFTER 24-36 HOURS... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SPLIT THE UPPER AND LOWER PARTS OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH THE LOWER PORTION MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND THE UPPER PORTION MORE RAPIDLY TO THE WEST. BECAUSE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE AS A RELATIVELY STRONG SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TREND. GIVEN THAT ONLY SMALL ERRORS IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS WOULD BRING A HURRICANE TO THE COASTLINE...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 16.6N 100.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 17.5N 102.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 17.9N 103.6W 60 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 18.0N 104.8W 60 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 18.0N 105.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 17.8N 107.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 16/0600Z 17.0N 109.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN