000 WTPZ41 KNHC 102033 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008 THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE DIMINISHED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RECENTLY HAS INCREASED AGAIN. THE BANDING LOOKS A LITTLE LESS IMPRESSIVE NOW THAN IT DID EARLIER IN THE DAY. OVERALL...THERE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE ANY REASON TO ALTER THE ADVISORY INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...SO ODILE STILL HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IF IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. BY THAT TIME...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND MOST SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST GFDL AND HWRF RUNS SHOW EVEN MORE RAPID WEAKENING...WHILE THE STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP ODILE A HURRICANE THROUGH 5 DAYS. SHOULD ODILE SURVIVE THE INCREASE IN SHEAR... WATERS UNDER THE CYCLONE WILL BE VERY WARM...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLOW DECAY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10...A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF ODILE COULD WEAKEN JUST A BIT AS NORBERT BEGINS ITS RECURVATURE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...ALLOWING ODILE TO GET VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE...BUT AFTER NORBERT CLEARS OUT A BUILDING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BLOCK ODILE'S PATH AND TURN IT BACK TO THE WEST. EVEN THOUGH I HAVE ADJUSTED THE TRACK TO THE SOUTH AFTER 48 HOURS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE EVEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 15.3N 98.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 15.9N 99.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 16.6N 101.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 17.2N 102.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 17.4N 103.8W 60 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 17.5N 105.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 14/1800Z 17.5N 107.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 15/1800Z 17.5N 108.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN